Types Unemployment Essay

Essay on the Types of Unemployment – We may speak of different types of unemployment such as the following: seasonal unemployment, agricultural unemployment, frictional and technological unemployment, industrial unemployment, cyclical unemployment, educational unemployment, voluntary unemployment, involuntary unemployment or under-employment, open unemployment and disguised unemployment.

1. Seasonal Unemployment:

Seasonal unemployment is very much associated with agriculture. During the off- season many labourers will have to spend their time idly without having any work .In some industries such as sugar, woollen and ice factories, workers get jobs only for a certain period of the year or in a particular season.

When the season is over, they don’t get work in the factories and they will have to wait for the next season to come to find the same work. This type of unemployment may often make the labourers to become migratory in character.

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2. Agricultural Unemployment:

Agricultural unemployment is caused by a number of factors such as the very seasonal nature of agricultural work, the decay of cottage industries, lack of demand for homemade products, lack of alternative work in the rural areas, sub-division of land holdings, etc. R.K. Mukherjee has said in his “Rural Economy of India” that on an average a cultivator in north India does not remain busy for more than 200days in a year.

Studies have revealed that “of the total population in the rural areas, only 29.4% people are self supporting, 59.0% are non-earning dependents, and 11.6% are earning dependents. This means

3. Technological and Frictional Unemployment:

Sometimes in the technological field ‘friction’ is caused due to an imbalance between the supply of labours and the demand for it. This friction does not allow the potentialities of the labour to be tapped. Even though unemployed workers are there ready to work, they may not be fit for the work, or they may not have the required skill and qualification to do the work.

Since the demand of the customers is constantly shifting from one product to another, it becomes difficult for workers to catch up with the tastes and choices of the workers. Such shifts in consumer demand may make certain factories to be closed down leaving behind a trail of unemployment.

Technological unemployment is caused mainly because of the introduction of labour-saving machines. It is caused due to the reduction of man power necessary to produce a finished article.

The process of automation and mechanization has caused great anxieties and insecurities for workers displacing good number of them from work. Introduction of computers in the beginning stages can be cited here as an example. Every advance in technology virtually means today, displacement of human labour to some or the other extent.

4. Industrial Unemployment:

Industrial unemployment is caused in another manner. Due to high pressure of people on land, a large number of rural people are moving towards urban areas in search of jobs in some factories or the other, only to get disappointment in a short time.

Slow growth of industries, competition with foreign industries, unplanned industrialization, defective industrial policies, labour strikes or employer’s lock­out, rationalization, etc., may also cause industrial unemployment.

5. Cyclical Unemployment:

Due to the “trade cycles”‘, booms, recessions and depressions are common in the business world. Such ups-and-downs in business influence the volume of unemployment which decreases when trade is good and increases when it is bad.

If depression continues for a longer period (like the Great Depression of 1925-30) it adversely affects the labourers by turning them out of job or by providing no fresh job opportunities.

6. Educational Unemployment:

There is a close link between the job opportunities and the system of education. In fact, in one of its annual report, the UGC (University Grants Commission) itself has commented that the present system of education is “generating much waste and stagnation “.

The Kothari Commission (1964- 66) had admitted long back that there is a wide gulf between “the contents of the present education and purposes and the concerns of national development”.

Even after 1966, thorough overhauling of our educational system to make it relevant to the needs and demands of the time has not been made. Hence, every year we are producing thousands of degree- holders only to join the rank of the educated unemployed youths. For example, in 1965 there were 9 lakh unemployed graduates in the country, and the number increased to 5.6 million in 1977.

The figure of educated unemployed persons in the nation was 34,66,435 as on November 30th 1991. West Bengal has the largest number of educated unemployed persons (degree holders) in the country (27.21 % of the total unemployed) followed by Bihar (24.85%), Kerala (21.10%) and Karnataka (18.49%)

7. Temporary Unemployment:

Our young men and women who are capable of securing for themselves some jobs, do not get them soon after their education. Many of them are made to wait for some time during which they remain as unemployed. People often change their jobs, and in the interval of changing they may remain as unemployed for a short period.

8. Voluntary Unemployment:

Voluntary unemployment is found when the worker voluntarily withdraws himself from the work, He may do so due to the quarrel with the employer, or he may have other sources of income. This condition is relatively rare and hence this type of unemployment is not given much importance.

9. Involuntary Unemployment or Under-employment:

Lord Keynes uses the concept of involuntary unemployment for under-employment. It refers to a condition in which the self -employed working people are not working to their full capacity. People who are partially employed, or are doing inferior jobs while they could do better jobs are not adequately employed. It can be called a state of “under-employment”.

10. Open Unemployment or Structural Unemployment:

Open unemployment is also called “structural unemployment”. It is the result of lack of complementary resources especially capital. Open unemployment is a situation where in a large labour force does not get work opportunities that may fetch them regular income.

Open unemployment is the result particularly when a large reserve army of labour exists which does not find any income- fetching job. Open unemployment emerges because the rate of capital accumulation lags behind the rate of population growth

11. Disguised Unemployment:

Disguised unemployment is that type of unemployment which cannot be seen or known from outside. It is concealed or hidden. It refers to a situation in which men or women work the whole day but fail to make any contribution to the total output.

It is a state of affair in which a person’s marginal productivity or contribution is close to zero. This type of unemployment is very much acute and apparent in the rural area.

For example, of the 10 people who have been working in a piece of land, even if 3 persons migrate to cities, the productivity of the land does not get affected. This shows that the contribution of the 3 persons to productivity is virtually zero.

For payments paid to unemployed people, see unemployment benefits.

Unemployment is the situation of actively looking for employment but not being currently employed.

The unemployment rate is a measure of the prevalence of unemployment and it is calculated as a percentage by dividing the number of unemployed individuals by all individuals currently in the labor force. During periods of recession, an economy usually experiences a relatively high unemployment rate.[1] According to International Labour Organization report, more than 200 million people globally or 6% of the world's workforce were without a job in 2012.[2]

The causes of unemployment are heavily debated.[3]Classical economics, new classical economics, and the Austrian School of economics argued that market mechanisms are reliable means of resolving unemployment. These theories argue against interventions imposed on the labor market from the outside, such as unionization, bureaucratic work rules, minimum wage laws, taxes, and other regulations that they claim discourage the hiring of workers. Keynesian economics emphasizes the cyclical nature of unemployment and recommends government interventions in the economy that it claims will reduce unemployment during recessions. This theory focuses on recurrent shocks that suddenly reduce aggregate demand for goods and services and thus reduce demand for workers. Keynesian models recommend government interventions designed to increase demand for workers; these can include financial stimuli, publicly funded job creation, and expansionist monetary policies. Its namesake economist John Maynard Keynes, believed that the root cause of unemployment is the desire of investors to receive more money rather than produce more products, which is not possible without public bodies producing new money.[4] A third group of theories emphasize the need for a stable supply of capital and investment to maintain full employment.[5] On this view, government should guarantee full employment through fiscal policy, monetary policy and trade policy as stated, for example, in the US Employment Act of 1946, by counteracting private sector or trade investment volatility, and reducing inequality.[6]

In addition to these comprehensive theories of unemployment, there are a few categorizations of unemployment that are used to more precisely model the effects of unemployment within the economic system. The main types of unemployment include structural unemployment which focuses on structural problems in the economy and inefficiencies inherent in labour markets, including a mismatch between the supply and demand of laborers with necessary skill sets. Structural arguments emphasize causes and solutions related to disruptive technologies and globalization....Discussions of frictional unemployment focus on voluntary decisions to work based on each individuals' valuation of their own work and how that compares to current wage rates plus the time and effort required to find a job. Causes and solutions for frictional unemployment often address job entry threshold and wage rates. Behavioral economists highlight individual biases in decision making, and often involve problems and solutions concerning sticky wages and efficiency wages.

For centuries, experts have predicted that machines would make workers obsolete and increase unemployment.[7][8]

Definitions, types, and theories[edit]

The state of being without any work for an educated person, for earning one's livelihood is meant by unemployment. Economists distinguish between various overlapping types of and theories of unemployment, including cyclical or Keynesian unemployment, frictional unemployment, structural unemployment and classical unemployment. Some additional types of unemployment that are occasionally mentioned are seasonal unemployment, hardcore unemployment, and hidden unemployment.

Though there have been several definitions of "voluntary" and "involuntary unemployment" in the economics literature, a simple distinction is often applied. Voluntary unemployment is attributed to the individual's decisions, whereas involuntary unemployment exists because of the socio-economic environment (including the market structure, government intervention, and the level of aggregate demand) in which individuals operate. In these terms, much or most of frictional unemployment is voluntary, since it reflects individual search behavior. Voluntary unemployment includes workers who reject low wage jobs whereas involuntary unemployment includes workers fired due to an economic crisis, industrial decline, company bankruptcy, or organizational restructuring.

On the other hand, cyclical unemployment, structural unemployment, and classical unemployment are largely involuntary in nature. However, the existence of structural unemployment may reflect choices made by the unemployed in the past, while classical (natural) unemployment may result from the legislative and economic choices made by labour unions or political parties. So, in practice, the distinction between voluntary and involuntary unemployment is hard to draw.

The clearest cases of involuntary unemployment are those where there are fewer job vacancies than unemployed workers even when wages are allowed to adjust, so that even if all vacancies were to be filled, some unemployed workers would still remain. This happens with cyclical unemployment, as macroeconomic forces cause microeconomic unemployment which can boomerang back and exacerbate these macroeconomic forces.

Classical unemployment[edit]

Classical, or real-wage unemployment, occurs when real wages for a job are set above the market-clearing level causing the number of job-seekers to exceed the number of vacancies. On the other hand, most economists argue that as wages fall below a livable wage many choose to fall out of the labor market and no longer seek employment. This is especially true in countries where low-income families are supported through public welfare systems. In such cases, wages would have to be high enough to motivate people to choose employment over what they receive through public welfare. Wages below a livable wage are likely to result in lower labor market participation in above stated scenario. In addition it must be noted that consumption of goods and services is the primary driver of increased need for labor. Higher wages leads to workers having more income available to consume goods and services. Therefore, higher wages increase general consumption and as a result need for labor increases and unemployment decreases in the economy Many economists have argued that unemployment increases with increased governmental regulation. For example, minimum wage laws raise the cost of some low-skill laborers above market equilibrium, resulting in increased unemployment as people who wish to work at the going rate cannot (as the new and higher enforced wage is now greater than the value of their labour).[9][10] Laws restricting layoffs may make businesses less likely to hire in the first place, as hiring becomes more risky.[10]

However, this argument overly simplifies the relationship between wage rates and unemployment, ignoring numerous factors, which contribute to unemployment.[11][12][13][14][15] Some, such as Murray Rothbard, suggest that even social taboos can prevent wages from falling to the market-clearing level.[16]

In Out of Work: Unemployment and Government in the Twentieth-Century America, economists Richard Vedder and Lowell Gallaway argue that the empirical record of wages rates, productivity, and unemployment in American validates classical unemployment theory. Their data shows a strong correlation between adjusted real wage and unemployment in the United States from 1900 to 1990. However, they maintain that their data does not take into account exogenous events.[17]

Cyclical unemployment[edit]

Cyclical, deficient-demand, or Keynesian unemployment, occurs when there is not enough aggregate demand in the economy to provide jobs for everyone who wants to work. Demand for most goods and services falls, less production is needed and consequently fewer workers are needed, wages are sticky and do not fall to meet the equilibrium level, and mass unemployment results.[18] Its name is derived from the frequent shifts in the business cycle although unemployment can also be persistent as occurred during the Great Depression of the 1930s.

With cyclical unemployment, the number of unemployed workers exceeds the number of job vacancies, so that even if full employment were attained and all open jobs were filled, some workers would still remain unemployed. Some associate cyclical unemployment with frictional unemployment because the factors that cause the friction are partially caused by cyclical variables. For example, a surprise decrease in the money supply may shock rational economic factors and suddenly inhibit aggregate demand.

Keynesian economists on the other hand see the lack of supply for jobs as potentially resolvable by government intervention. One suggested interventions involves deficit spending to boost employment and demand. Another intervention involves an expansionary monetary policy that increases the supply of money which should reduce interest rates which should lead to an increase in non-governmental spending.[19]

Marxian theory of unemployment[edit]

It is in the very nature of the capitalist mode of production to overwork some workers while keeping the rest as a reserve army of unemployed paupers.

— Marx, Theory of Surplus Value[20]

Marxists share the Keynesian viewpoint of the relationship between economic demand and employment, but with the caveat that the market system's propensity to slash wages and reduce labor participation on an enterprise level causes a requisite decrease in aggregate demand in the economy as a whole, causing crises of unemployment and periods of low economic activity before the capital accumulation (investment) phase of economic growth can continue.

According to Karl Marx, unemployment is inherent within the unstable capitalist system and periodic crises of mass unemployment are to be expected. The function of the proletariat within the capitalist system is to provide a "reserve army of labour" that creates downward pressure on wages. This is accomplished by dividing the proletariat into surplus labour (employees) and under-employment (unemployed).[21] This reserve army of labour fight among themselves for scarce jobs at lower and lower wages.

At first glance, unemployment seems inefficient since unemployed workers do not increase profits, but unemployment is profitable within the global capitalist system because unemployment lowers wages which are costs from the perspective of the owners. From this perspective low wages benefit the system by reducing economic rents. Yet, it does not benefit workers. Capitalist systems unfairly manipulate the market for labour by perpetuating unemployment which lowers laborers' demands for fair wages. Workers are pitted against one another at the service of increasing profits for owners.

According to Marx, the only way to permanently eliminate unemployment would be to abolish capitalism and the system of forced competition for wages and then shift to a socialist or communist economic system. For contemporary Marxists, the existence of persistent unemployment is proof of the inability of capitalism to ensure full employment.[22]

Full employment[edit]

Main article: Full employment

In demand-based theory, it is possible to abolish cyclical unemployment by increasing the aggregate demand for products and workers. However, eventually the economy hits an "inflation barrier" imposed by the four other kinds of unemployment to the extent that they exist. Historical experience suggests that low unemployment affects inflation in the short term but not the long term.[23] In the long term, the velocity of money supply measures such as the MZM ("money zero maturity", representing cash and equivalent demand deposits) velocity is far more predictive of inflation than low unemployment.[24][25]

Some demand theory economists see the inflation barrier as corresponding to the natural rate of unemployment. The "natural" rate of unemployment is defined as the rate of unemployment that exists when the labour market is in equilibrium and there is pressure for neither rising inflation rates nor falling inflation rates. An alternative technical term for this rate is the NAIRU, or the Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment. No matter what its name, demand theory holds that this means that if the unemployment rate gets "too low," inflation will accelerate in the absence of wage and price controls (incomes policies).

One of the major problems with the NAIRU theory is that no one knows exactly what the NAIRU is (while it clearly changes over time).[23] The margin of error can be quite high relative to the actual unemployment rate, making it hard to use the NAIRU in policy-making.[24]

Another, normative, definition of full employment might be called the ideal unemployment rate. It would exclude all types of unemployment that represent forms of inefficiency. This type of "full employment" unemployment would correspond to only frictional unemployment (excluding that part encouraging the McJobs management strategy) and would thus be very low. However, it would be impossible to attain this full-employment target using only demand-side Keynesian stimulus without getting below the NAIRU and causing accelerating inflation (absent incomes policies). Training programs aimed at fighting structural unemployment would help here.

To the extent that hidden unemployment exists, it implies that official unemployment statistics provide a poor guide to what unemployment rate coincides with "full employment".[23]

Structural unemployment[edit]

Main article: Structural unemployment

Structural unemployment occurs when a labour market is unable to provide jobs for everyone who wants one because there is a mismatch between the skills of the unemployed workers and the skills needed for the available jobs. Structural unemployment is hard to separate empirically from frictional unemployment, except to say that it lasts longer. As with frictional unemployment, simple demand-side stimulus will not work to easily abolish this type of unemployment.

Structural unemployment may also be encouraged to rise by persistent cyclical unemployment: if an economy suffers from long-lasting low aggregate demand, it means that many of the unemployed become disheartened, while their skills (including job-searching skills) become "rusty" and obsolete. Problems with debt may lead to homelessness and a fall into the vicious circle of poverty.

This means that they may not fit the job vacancies that are created when the economy recovers. The implication is that sustained high demand may lower structural unemployment. This theory of persistence in structural unemployment has been referred to as an example of path dependence or "hysteresis".

Much technological unemployment,[26] due to the replacement of workers by machines, might be counted as structural unemployment. Alternatively, technological unemployment might refer to the way in which steady increases in labour productivity mean that fewer workers are needed to produce the same level of output every year. The fact that aggregate demand can be raised to deal with this problem suggests that this problem is instead one of cyclical unemployment. As indicated by Okun's Law, the demand side must grow sufficiently quickly to absorb not only the growing labour force but also the workers made redundant by increased labour productivity.

Seasonal unemployment may be seen as a kind of structural unemployment, since it is a type of unemployment that is linked to certain kinds of jobs (construction work, migratory farm work). The most-cited official unemployment measures erase this kind of unemployment from the statistics using "seasonal adjustment" techniques. This results in substantial, permanent structural unemployment.

Frictional unemployment[edit]

Main article: Frictional unemployment

Frictional unemployment is the time period between jobs when a worker is searching for, or transitioning from one job to another. It is sometimes called search unemployment and can be voluntary based on the circumstances of the unemployed individual.

Frictional unemployment exists because both jobs and workers are heterogeneous, and a mismatch can result between the characteristics of supply and demand. Such a mismatch can be related to skills, payment, work-time, location, seasonal industries, attitude, taste, and a multitude of other factors. New entrants (such as graduating students) and re-entrants (such as former homemakers) can also suffer a spell of frictional unemployment.

Workers as well as employers accept a certain level of imperfection, risk or compromise, but usually not right away; they will invest some time and effort to find a better match. This is in fact beneficial to the economy since it results in a better allocation of resources. However, if the search takes too long and mismatches are too frequent, the economy suffers, since some work will not get done. Therefore, governments will seek ways to reduce unnecessary frictional unemployment through multiple means including providing education, advice, training, and assistance such as daycare centers.

The frictions in the labour market are sometimes illustrated graphically with a Beveridge curve, a downward-sloping, convex curve that shows a correlation between the unemployment rate on one axis and the vacancy rate on the other. Changes in the supply of or demand for labour cause movements along this curve. An increase (decrease) in labour market frictions will shift the curve outwards (inwards).

Hidden unemployment[edit]

Hidden, or covered, unemployment is the unemployment of potential workers that is not reflected in official unemployment statistics, due to the way the statistics are collected. In many countries only those who have no work but are actively looking for work (and/or qualifying for social security benefits) are counted as unemployed. Those who have given up looking for work (and sometimes those who are on Government "retraining" programs) are not officially counted among the unemployed, even though they are not employed.

The statistic also does not count the "underemployed"—those working fewer hours than they would prefer or in a job that doesn't make good use of their capabilities. In addition, those who are of working age but are currently in full-time education are usually not considered unemployed in government statistics. Traditional unemployed native societies who survive by gathering, hunting, herding, and farming in wilderness areas, may or may not be counted in unemployment statistics. Official statistics often underestimate unemployment rates because of hidden unemployment.

Long-term unemployment[edit]

Long-term unemployment is defined in European Union statistics, as unemployment lasting for longer than one year. The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which reports current long-term unemployment rate at 1.9 percent, defines this as unemployment lasting 27 weeks or longer. Long-term unemployment is a component of structural unemployment, which results in long-term unemployment existing in every social group, industry, occupation, and all levels of education.[27]

Measurement[edit]

There are also different ways national statistical agencies measure unemployment. These differences may limit the validity of international comparisons of unemployment data.[28] To some degree these differences remain despite national statistical agencies increasingly adopting the definition of unemployment by the International Labour Organization.[29] To facilitate international comparisons, some organizations, such as the OECD, Eurostat, and International Labor Comparisons Program, adjust data on unemployment for comparability across countries.

Though many people care about the number of unemployed individuals, economists typically focus on the unemployment rate. This corrects for the normal increase in the number of people employed due to increases in population and increases in the labour force relative to the population. The unemployment rate is expressed as a percentage, and is calculated as follows:

As defined by the International Labour Organization, "unemployed workers" are those who are currently not working but are willing and able to work for pay, currently available to work, and have actively searched for work.[30] Individuals who are actively seeking job placement must make the effort to: be in contact with an employer, have job interviews, contact job placement agencies, send out resumes, submit applications, respond to advertisements, or some other means of active job searching within the prior four weeks. Simply looking at advertisements and not responding will not count as actively seeking job placement. Since not all unemployment may be "open" and counted by government agencies, official statistics on unemployment may not be accurate.[31] In the United States, for example, the unemployment rate does not take into consideration those individuals who are not actively looking for employment, such as those still attending college.[32]

The ILO describes 4 different methods to calculate the unemployment rate:[33]

  • Labour Force Sample Surveys are the most preferred method of unemployment rate calculation since they give the most comprehensive results and enables calculation of unemployment by different group categories such as race and gender. This method is the most internationally comparable.
  • Official Estimates are determined by a combination of information from one or more of the other three methods. The use of this method has been declining in favor of Labour Surveys.
  • Social Insurance Statistics such as unemployment benefits, are computed base on the number of persons insured representing the total labour force and the number of persons who are insured that are collecting benefits. This method has been heavily criticized due to the expiration of benefits before the person finds work.
  • Employment Office Statistics are the least effective being that they only include a monthly tally of unemployed persons who enter employment offices. This method also includes unemployed who are not unemployed per the ILO definition.

The primary measure of unemployment, U3, allows for comparisons between countries. Unemployment differs from country to country and across different time periods. For example, during the 1990s and 2000s, the United States had lower unemployment levels than many countries in the European Union,[34] which had significant internal variation, with countries like the UK and Denmark outperforming Italy and France. However, large economic events such as the Great Depression can lead to similar unemployment rates across the globe.

European Union (Eurostat)[edit]

Further information: List of sovereign states in Europe by unemployment rate

Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union, defines unemployed as those persons age 15 to 74 who are not working, have looked for work in the last four weeks, and ready to start work within two weeks, which conform to ILO standards. Both the actual count and rate of unemployment are reported. Statistical data are available by member state, for the European Union as a whole (EU28) as well as for the euro area (EA19). Eurostat also includes a long-term unemployment rate. This is defined as part of the unemployed who have been unemployed for an excess of 1 year.[35]

The main source used is the European Union Labour Force Survey (EU-LFS). The EU-LFS collects data on all member states each quarter. For monthly calculations, national surveys or national registers from employment offices are used in conjunction with quarterly EU-LFS data. The exact calculation for individual countries, resulting in harmonized monthly data, depend on the availability of the data.[36]

United States Bureau of Labor statistics[edit]

See also: Unemployment in the United States

The Bureau of Labor Statistics measures employment and unemployment (of those over 15 years of age) using two different labor force surveys[38] conducted by the United States Census Bureau (within the United States Department of Commerce) and/or the Bureau of Labor Statistics (within the United States Department of Labor) that gather employment statistics monthly. The Current Population Survey (CPS), or "Household Survey", conducts a survey based on a sample of 60,000 households. This Survey measures the unemployment rate based on the ILO definition.[39]

The Current Employment Statistics survey (CES), or "Payroll Survey", conducts a survey based on a sample of 160,000 businesses and government agencies that represent 400,000 individual employers.[40] This survey measures only civilian nonagricultural employment; thus, it does not calculate an unemployment rate, and it differs from the ILO unemployment rate definition. These two sources have different classification criteria, and usually produce differing results. Additional data are also available from the government, such as the unemployment insurance weekly claims report available from the Office of Workforce Security, within the U.S. Department of Labor Employment & Training Administration.[41] The Bureau of Labor Statistics provides up-to-date numbers via a PDF linked here.[42] The BLS also provides a readable concise current Employment Situation Summary, updated monthly.[43]

The Bureau of Labor Statistics also calculates six alternate measures of unemployment, U1 through U6, that measure different aspects of unemployment:[44]

  • U1:[45] Percentage of labor force unemployed 15 weeks or longer.
  • U2: Percentage of labor force who lost jobs or completed temporary work.
  • U3: Official unemployment rate per the ILO definition occurs when people are without jobs and they have actively looked for work within the past four weeks.[46]
  • U4: U3 + "discouraged workers", or those who have stopped looking for work because current economic conditions make them believe that no work is available for them.
  • U5: U4 + other "marginally attached workers", or "loosely attached workers", or those who "would like" and are able to work, but have not looked for work recently.
  • U6: U5 + Part-time workers who want to work full-time, but cannot due to economic reasons (underemployment).

Note: "Marginally attached workers" are added to the total labour force for unemployment rate calculation for U4, U5, and U6. The BLS revised the CPS in 1994 and among the changes the measure representing the official unemployment rate was renamed U3 instead of U5.[47] In 2013, Representative Hunter proposed that the Bureau of Labor Statistics use the U5 rate instead of the current U3 rate.[48]

Statistics for the U.S. economy as a whole hide variations among groups. For example, in January 2008 U.S. unemployment rates were 4.4% for adult men, 4.2% for adult women, 4.4% for Caucasians, 6.3% for Hispanics or Latinos (all races), 9.2% for African Americans, 3.2% for Asian Americans, and 18.0% for teenagers.[40] Also, the U.S. unemployment rate would be at least 2% higher if prisoners and jail inmates were counted.[49][50]

The unemployment rate is included in a number of major economic indexes including the United States' Conference Board'sIndex of Leading Indicators a macroeconomic measure of the state of the economy.

Alternatives[edit]

Limitations of the unemployment definition[edit]

Some critics believe that current methods of measuring unemployment are inaccurate in terms of the impact of unemployment on people as these methods do not take into account the 1.5% of the available working population incarcerated in U.S. prisons (who may or may not be working while incarcerated), those who have lost their jobs and have become discouraged over time from actively looking for work, those who are self-employed or wish to become self-employed, such as tradesmen or building contractors or IT consultants, those who have retired before the official retirement age but would still like to work (involuntary early retirees), those on disability pensions who, while not possessing full health, still wish to work in occupations suitable for their medical conditions, those who work for payment for as little as one hour per week but would like to work full-time.[56]

These people are "involuntary part-time" workers, those who are underemployed, e.g., a computer programmer who is working in a retail store until he can find a permanent job, involuntary stay-at-home mothers who would prefer to work, and graduate and Professional school students who were unable to find worthwhile jobs after they graduated with their bachelor's degrees.

Internationally, some nations' unemployment rates are sometimes muted or appear less severe due to the number of self-employed individuals working in agriculture.[51] Small independent farmers are often considered self-employed; so, they cannot be unemployed. The impact of this is that in non-industrialized economies, such as the United States and Europe during the early 19th century, overall unemployment was approximately 3% because so many individuals were self-employed, independent farmers; yet, unemployment outside of agriculture was as high as 80%.[51]

Many economies industrialize and experience increasing numbers of non-agricultural workers. For example, the United States' non-agricultural labour force increased from 20% in 1800, to 50% in 1850, to 97% in 2000.[51] The shift away from self-employment increases the percentage of the population who are included in unemployment rates. When comparing unemployment rates between countries or time periods, it is best to consider differences in their levels of industrialization and self-employment.

Additionally, the measures of employment and unemployment may be "too high". In some countries, the availability of unemployment benefits can inflate statistics since they give an incentive to register as unemployed. People who do not seek work may choose to declare themselves unemployed so as to get benefits; people with undeclared paid occupations may try to get unemployment benefits in addition to the money they earn from their work.[57]

However, in countries such as the United States, Canada, Mexico, Australia, Japan and the European Union, unemployment is measured using a sample survey (akin to a Gallup poll).[29] According to the BLS, a number of Eastern European nations have instituted labour force surveys as well. The sample survey has its own problems because the total number of workers in the economy is calculated based on a sample rather than a census.

It is possible to be neither employed nor unemployed by ILO definitions, i.e., to be outside of the "labour force".[31] These are people who have no job and are not looking for one. Many of these people are going to school or are retired. Family responsibilities keep others out of the labour force. Still others have a physical or mental disability which prevents them from participating in labour force activities. Some people simply elect not to work preferring to be dependent on others for sustenance.

Typically, employment and the labour force include only work done for monetary gain. Hence, a homemaker is neither part of the labour force nor unemployed. Nor are full-time students nor prisoners considered to be part of the labour force or unemployment.[56] The latter can be important. In 1999, economists Lawrence F. Katz and Alan B. Krueger estimated that increased incarceration lowered measured unemployment in the United States by 0.17% between 1985 and the late 1990s.[56]

In particular, as of 2005, roughly 0.7% of the U.S. population is incarcerated (1.5% of the available working population). Additionally, children, the elderly, and some individuals with disabilities are typically not counted as part of the labour force in and are correspondingly not included in the unemployment statistics. However, some elderly and many disabled individuals are active in the labour market

In the early stages of an economic boom, unemployment often rises.[18] This is because people join the labour market (give up studying, start a job hunt, etc.) as a result of the improving job market, but until they have actually found a position they are counted as unemployed. Similarly, during a recession, the increase in the unemployment rate is moderated by people leaving the labour force or being otherwise discounted from the labour force, such as with the self-employed.

For the fourth quarter of 2004, according to OECD, (source Employment Outlook 2005ISBN 92-64-01045-9), normalized unemployment for men aged 25 to 54 was 4.6% in the U.S. and 7.4% in France. At the same time and for the same population the employment rate (number of workers divided by population) was 86.3% in the U.S. and 86.7% in France. This example shows that the unemployment rate is 60% higher in France than in the U.S., yet more people in this demographic are working in France than in the U.S., which is counterintuitive if it is expected that the unemployment rate reflects the health of the labour market.[58][59]

Due to these deficiencies, many labour market economists prefer to look at a range of economic statistics such as labour market participation rate, the percentage of people aged between 15 and 64 who are currently employed or searching for employment, the total number of full-time jobs in an economy, the number of people seeking work as a raw number and not a percentage, and the total number of person-hours worked in a month compared to the total number of person-hours people would like to work. In particular the NBER does not use the unemployment rate but prefer various employment rates to date recessions.[60]

Labor force participation rate[edit]

The labor force participation rate is the ratio between the labor force and the overall size of their cohort (national population of the same age range). In the West during the later half of the 20th century, the labor force participation rate increased significantly, due to an increase in the number of women who entered the workplace.

In the United States, there have been four significant stages of women's participation in the labor force—increases in the 20th century and decreases in the 21st century. Male labor force participation decreased from 1953 until 2013. Since October 2013 men have been increasingly joining the labor force.

During the late 19th century through the 1920s, very few women worked outside the home. They were young single women who typically withdrew from the labor force at marriage unless family needed two incomes. These women worked primarily in the textile manufacturing industry or as domestic workers. This profession empowered women and allowed them to earn a living wage. At times, they were a financial help to their families.

Between 1930 and 1950, female labor force participation increased primarily due to the increased demand for office workers, women's participation in the high school movement, and due to electrification which reduced the time spent on household chores. Between the 1950s to the early 1970s, most women were secondary earners working mainly as secretaries, teachers, nurses, and librarians (pink-collar jobs).

Between the mid-1970s to the late 1990s there was a period of revolution of women in the labor force brought on by a source of different factors. Women more accurately planned for their future in the work force, investing in more applicable majors in college that prepared them to enter and compete in the labor market. In the United States, the female labor force participation rate rose from approximately 33% in 1948 to a peak of 60.3% in 2000. As of April 2015 the female labor force participation is at 56.6%, the male labor force participation rate is at 69.4% and the total is 62.8%.[61]

A common theory in modern economics claims that the rise of women participating in the U.S. labor force in the 1950s to the 1990s was due to the introduction of a new contraceptive technology, birth control pills, and the adjustment of age of majority laws. The use of birth control gave women the flexibility of opting to invest and advance their career while maintaining a relationship. By having control over the timing of their fertility, they were not running a risk of thwarting their career choices. However, only 40% of the population actually used the birth control pill.

This implies that other factors may have contributed to women choosing to invest in advancing their careers. One factor may be that more and more men delayed the age of marriage, allowing women to marry later in life without worrying about the quality of older men. Other factors include the changing nature of work, with machines replacing physical labor, eliminating many traditional male occupations, and the rise of the service sector, where many jobs are gender neutral.

Another factor that may have contributed to the trend was The Equal Pay Act of 1963, which aimed at abolishing wage disparity based on sex. Such legislation diminished sexual discrimination and encouraged more women to enter the labor market by receiving fair remuneration to help raising families and children.

At the turn of the 21st century the labor force participation began to reverse its long period of increase. Reasons for this change include a rising share of older workers, an increase in school enrollment rates among young workers and a decrease in female labor force participation.[62]

The labor force participation rate can decrease when the rate of growth of the population outweighs that of the employed and unemployed together. The labor force participation rate is a key component in long-term economic growth, almost as important as productivity.

A historic shift began around the end of the great recession as women began leaving the labor force in the United States and other developed countries.[63] The female labor force participation rate in the United States has steadily decreased since 2009 and as of April 2015 the female labor force participation rate has gone back down to 1988 levels of 56.6%.[61]

Participation rates are defined as follows:

Pop = total populationLF = labor force = U + E
LFpop = labor force population
(generally defined as all men and women aged 15–64)
p = participation rate = LF / LFpop
E = number employede = rate of employment = E / LFpop
U = number of unemployedu = rate of unemployment = U / LF

The labor force participation rate explains how an increase in the unemployment rate can occur simultaneously with an increase in employment. If a large amount of new workers enter the labor force but only a small fraction become employed, then the increase in the number of unemployed workers can outpace the growth in employment.[64]

Unemployment ratio[edit]

The unemployment ratio calculates the share of unemployed for the whole population. Particularly many young people between 15 and 24 are studying full-time and are therefore neither working nor looking for a job. This means they are not part of the labour force which is used as the denominator for calculating the unemployment rate.[65] The youth unemployment ratios in the European Union range from 5.2 (Austria) to 20.6 percent (Spain). These are considerably lower than the standard youth unemployment rates, ranging from 7.9 (Germany) to 57.9 percent (Greece).[66]

Effects[edit]

High and persistent unemployment, in which economic inequality increases, has a negative effect on subsequent long-run economic growth. Unemployment can harm growth not only because it is a waste of resources, but also because it generates redistributive pressures and subsequent distortions, drives people to poverty, constrains liquidity limiting labor mobility, and erodes self-esteem promoting social dislocation, unrest and conflict.[67] 2013 Economics Nobel prize winner Robert J. Shiller said that rising inequality in the United States and elsewhere is the most important problem.[68]

Costs[edit]

Individual[edit]

Unemployed individuals are unable to earn money to meet financial obligations. Failure to pay mortgage payments or to pay rent may lead to homelessness through foreclosure or eviction.[69] Across the United States the growing ranks of people made homeless in the foreclosure crisis are generating tent cities.[70]

Unemployment increases susceptibility to cardiovascular disease, somatization, anxiety disorders, depression, and suicide. In addition, unemployed people have higher rates of medication use, poor diet, physician visits, tobacco smoking, alcoholic beverage consumption, drug use, and lower rates of exercise.[71] According to a study published in Social Indicator Research, even those who tend to be optimistic find it difficult to look on the bright side of things when unemployed. Using interviews and data from German participants aged 16 to 94—including individuals coping with the stresses of real life and not just a volunteering student population—the researchers determined that even optimists struggled with being unemployed.[72]

In 1979, Brenner found that for every 10% increase in the number of unemployed there is an increase of 1.2% in total mortality, a 1.7% increase in cardiovascular disease, 1.3% more cirrhosis cases, 1.7% more suicides, 4.0% more arrests, and 0.8% more assaults reported to the police.[73][74]

A study by Ruhm, in 2000, on the effect of recessions on health found that several measures of health actually improve during recessions.[75] As for the impact of an economic downturn on crime, during the Great Depression the crime rate did not decrease. The unemployed in the U.S. often use welfare programs such as Food Stamps or accumulating debt because unemployment insurance in the U.S. generally does not replace a majority of the income one received on the job (and one cannot receive such aid indefinitely).

Not everyone suffers equally from unemployment. In a prospective study of 9570 individuals over four years, highly conscientious people suffered more than twice as much if they became unemployed.[76] The authors suggested this may be due to conscientious people making different attributions about why they became unemployed, or through experiencing stronger reactions following failure. There is also possibility of reverse causality from poor health to unemployment.[77]

Some researchers hold that many of the low-income jobs are not really a better option than unemployment with a welfare state (with its unemployment insurance benefits). But since it is difficult or impossible to get unemployment insurance benefits without having worked in the past, these jobs and unemployment are more complementary than they are substitutes. (These jobs are often held short-term, either by students or by those trying to gain experience; turnover in most low-paying jobs is high.)

Another cost for the unemployed is that the combination of unemployment, lack of financial resources, and social responsibilities may push unemployed workers to take jobs that do not fit their skills or allow them to use their talents. Unemployment can cause underemployment, and fear of job loss can spur psychological anxiety. As well as anxiety, it can cause depression, lack of confidence, and huge amounts of stress. This stress is increased when the unemployed are faced with health issues, poverty, and lack of relational support.[78]

Another personal cost of unemployment is its impact on relationships. A 2008 study from Covizzi, which examines the relationship between unemployment and divorce, found that the rate of divorce is greater for couples when one partner is unemployed.[79] However, a more recent study has found that some couples often stick together in "unhappy" or "unhealthy" marriages when unemployed to buffer financial costs.[80] A 2014 study by Van der Meer found that the stigma that comes from being unemployed affects personal well-being, especially for men, who often feel as though their masculine identities are threatened by unemployment.[81]

Unemployment can also bring personal costs in relation to gender. One study found that women are more likely to experience unemployment than men and that they are less likely to move from temporary positions to permanent positions.[82] Another study on gender and unemployment found that men, however, are more likely to experience greater stress, depression, and adverse effects from unemployment, largely stemming from the perceived threat to their role as breadwinner.[83] This study found that men expect themselves to be viewed as "less manly" after a job loss than they actually are, and as a result they engage in compensating behaviors, such as financial risk-taking and increased assertiveness, because of it.

Costs of unemployment also vary depending on age. The young and the old are the two largest age groups currently experiencing unemployment.[84]

Short-Run Phillips Curve before and after Expansionary Policy, with Long-Run Phillips Curve (NAIRU). Note, however, that the unemployment rate is an inaccurate predictor of inflation in the long term.[23][24]
Okun's Law interprets unemployment as a function of the rate of growth in GDP.
Unemployment in the European Union and two EEA countries (Iceland and Norway) in March 2017, according to Eurostat
Unemployment rates from 1993–2009 for United States and European Union.
Unemployment rate in the U.S. by county in 2008.[37]

  1.2–3%

  3.1–4%

  4.1–5%

  5.1–6%

  6.1–7%

  7.1–8%

  8.1–9%

  9.1–10%

  10.1–11%

  11.1–13%

  13.1–22.9%

U1–U6 since 1950, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics

Estimated U.S. Unemployment rate from 1800–1890. All data are estimates based on data compiled by Lebergott.[51] See limitations section below regarding how to interpret unemployment statistics in self-employed, agricultural economies. See image info for complete data.

The United States Labor Force Participation Rate by gender 1948–2011. Men are represented in light blue, women in pink, and the total in black.

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